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Old 6th October 2016, 13:52   #141
geoff_boycotts_grandmother
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir Virgs and Zamora View Post
What score do you think leads to an even game? Do you actually think that a team scoring 330 is the underdog? Serious question.

If so then you will find some serious value in backing the chase!
ODIs are played on essentially 3 types of pitches: good, sluggish/worn (difficult to time or to get away especially against the softer ball, possibly some inconsistent bounce - West Indies and NZ have quite a few pitches like this - and 285 may be around par on these types of surfaces) and bowler friendly (eg a match where slips are deployed outside of the fielding restrictions and it's a challenge to bat out the overs).

The most common type of pitch in ODIs these days are good pitches. On those a score of 300ish is going to be chased down around three quarters of the time.

Go a bit higher and this year England failed to defend 318 and Australia 330, but England did defend 324 and Pakistan 337. The par would appear to be around here. A bit higher and scores of 343, 348 (India scored 323 in reply) and 361 were successfully defended although 371 wasn't.

Also interesting to note is how chasing teams are doing far better. Teams batting first have won just 18 out of 48 (last year 40 out of 85) suggesting teams are better at chasing and prehaps hinting that teams batting first are too conservative?
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Old 6th October 2016, 14:01   #142
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Or maybe too aggressive and don't set a platform. We could go in circles!
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Old 6th October 2016, 14:12   #143
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Or maybe too aggressive and don't set a platform. We could go in circles!
Unlikely to be the reason when scores of 318, 309, 308, 305, 302, 295, 294 and 290 have all been chased down this year.

Although I don't doubt your ability to go round in circles.
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It was a poor innings by Bell with the bat.
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Old 15th October 2016, 03:47   #144
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It's kinda a pointless question, because it is so pitch and attack dependent. Furthermore, how is "par" defined? A "better than 50% chance of winning" or "a better chance of winning than at the start of the game"?

For example, consider West Indies against South Africa and Zimbabwe against South Africa. The "50%" par score for the Windies is likely to be lower than that of Zimbabwe as their bowling is better. But the "Improved chances of winning" is likely to be higher, because their expected chance of winning going in to the match is higher.
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ODIs are played on essentially 3 types of pitches:...
Different sides will be better suited for different types, thus the par for each type of pitch will depend on both the side and the opposition.
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Also interesting to note is how chasing teams are doing far better. Teams batting first have won just 18 out of 48 (last year 40 out of 85) suggesting teams are better at chasing and prehaps hinting that teams batting first are too conservative?
This is more interesting, but I suspect it's not a strong outlier in statistical terms. What is worth of note is that in both years the second team won more often than the first. I'd like to see D/L games removed from the samples as a potential distortion, but this seems difficult with my lack of competence in Statsguru.

The figures for this century (restricted to matches between the main eight) suggest that this year isn't such an outlier - 2004 and 2012 were higher - while 2014 was the lowest of all.

More interestingly, this decade winning the toss has meant the team usually lost the match.
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Old 15th October 2016, 18:37   #145
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Originally Posted by geoff_boycotts_grandmother View Post
Also interesting to note is how chasing teams are doing far better. Teams batting first have won just 18 out of 48 (last year 40 out of 85) suggesting teams are better at chasing and prehaps hinting that teams batting first are too conservative?
Interesting because like Bumble I had the old fashioned view that it was better to get runs on the board and put the opposition under pressure. Wonder if the introduction of day/night games has made a difference here since often dew comes down for the 2nd innings and makes the ball skid on. This can be a great advantage on slow pitches as we saw in Bangladesh.
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Old 16th October 2016, 02:13   #146
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Interesting because like Bumble I had the old fashioned view that it was better to get runs on the board and put the opposition under pressure. Wonder if the introduction of day/night games has made a difference here since often dew comes down for the 2nd innings and makes the ball skid on. This can be a great advantage on slow pitches as we saw in Bangladesh.
Back in the 90s, commentators used to harp on about it being better to chase because it was easier to pace your innings.
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Old 17th October 2016, 02:25   #147
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Interesting because like Bumble I had the old fashioned view that it was better to get runs on the board and put the opposition under pressure. Wonder if the introduction of day/night games has made a difference here since often dew comes down for the 2nd innings and makes the ball skid on. This can be a great advantage on slow pitches as we saw in Bangladesh.
The stats actually suggest that the opposite - that the side batting second has more of an advantage in Day matches rather than Day/Night matches.

Day matches:
2000s had 1.39 W/L ratio batting second, 2010s 1.14.

D/N matches:
2000s had 1.08 W/L, 2010s 0.85 W/L.

So the golden era for batting second was the first decade of the century. May also have something to do with refinements to D/L.
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Old 6th December 2016, 13:21   #148
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Australia (Australia!) have managed to successfully defend a score of 378.
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It was a poor innings by Bell with the bat.
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Old 6th December 2016, 13:43   #149
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Australia (Australia!) have managed to successfully defend a score of 378.
Yet another example of a massively above par score making the game dull because the oppo never got close. Zzzzzz
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Old 7th December 2016, 12:07   #150
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https://www.theguardian.com/sport/20...aws-of-cricket

Amongst the red card chat

"The committee believes that the balance of the game has tilted too far in the batsman’s favour and has also recommended specific bat size limitations."
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Old 7th December 2016, 12:15   #151
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https://www.theguardian.com/sport/20...aws-of-cricket

Amongst the red card chat

"The committee believes that the balance of the game has tilted too far in the batsmanís favour and has also recommended specific bat size limitations."
Good.
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Old 7th December 2016, 12:27   #152
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Originally Posted by Jock McTuffnel v3 View Post
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/20...aws-of-cricket

Amongst the red card chat

"The committee believes that the balance of the game has tilted too far in the batsmanís favour and has also recommended specific bat size limitations."
About time. Have they announced what the limitations will be? Another they should look at is being more lenient with wides, especially with batsmen changing hands.
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Old 7th December 2016, 12:45   #153
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About time. Have they announced what the limitations will be? Another they should look at is being more lenient with wides, especially with batsmen changing hands.
cricinfo

"Bat edges and depth
The width of the edge of the bat could be restricted to a maximum of 40mm, and the depth to a maximum of 67mm from October 1, 2017, if the committee's recommendations are approved.

"Whilst not wishing to turn the clocks back too far, the committee, together with the Club's Cricket committee - which met last week at Lord's - wants to draw a line in the sand and target mis-hits that are clearing the boundary ropes for six," the committee said. "Many of the top players' bats have edges of between 38mm and 42mm, but there are some which have edges of up to 50mm, which was felt to be excessive and in need of restriction.""
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Old 7th December 2016, 13:25   #154
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cricinfo

"Bat edges and depth
The width of the edge of the bat could be restricted to a maximum of 40mm, and the depth to a maximum of 67mm from October 1, 2017, if the committee's recommendations are approved.

"Whilst not wishing to turn the clocks back too far, the committee, together with the Club's Cricket committee - which met last week at Lord's - wants to draw a line in the sand and target mis-hits that are clearing the boundary ropes for six," the committee said. "Many of the top players' bats have edges of between 38mm and 42mm, but there are some which have edges of up to 50mm, which was felt to be excessive and in need of restriction.""
It would be easier to stop teams bringing in the ropes.
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It was a poor innings by Bell with the bat.
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Old 7th December 2016, 13:47   #155
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Australia (Australia!) have managed to successfully defend a score of 378.
due to the Aussies having their first choice bowlers back. With the attack they had in their previous series against SA and Sri Lanka they may have had trouble defending it. Certainly the 314 they got in the first ODI would have been within New Zealand's reach.
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Old 7th December 2016, 21:58   #156
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Good.
Agreed
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Old 7th December 2016, 22:00   #157
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It would be easier to stop teams bringing in the ropes.
And ruin T20 nights at Chelmsford? You monster.
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I'm fully aware of his thinking, which merely underlines the point that he's an idiot.
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Old 7th December 2016, 22:25   #158
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jock McTuffnel v3 View Post
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/20...aws-of-cricket

Amongst the red card chat

"The committee believes that the balance of the game has tilted too far in the batsmanís favour and has also recommended specific bat size limitations."
We heard something like that at the last MCC meeting but nothing happened.
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Old 1st March 2017, 14:20   #159
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Interesting series going on in NZ.

South Africa laboured to 279 off 50 overs as du Plessis took 97 balls to score 67 and Duminy 41 balls to score 25. This meant that de Villiers, coming in at no.5 (surely too low?) only faced 59 deliveries, although he scored 72 off of them.

NZMartin Guptill chased it down with 5 overs to spare to draw NZ level with one to play.

The rest of the series has been rather low scoring due, I think, mainly to NZ's lack of depth in the batting and du Plessis and Duminy being awful in the SA middle order. Amla's short of runs at the top of the order as well. In the first NZ's run a ball effort wasn't enough. The second NZ surprisingly managed to defend 289 (du Plessis and Duminy again stinking up the middle order) of a chase SA really should have made and then in the third NZ were bowled out for 112 chasing 270.

I think both teams are second division. They have some absolute superstars but there's too big a drop-off between them and the support acts.
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Old 5th May 2017, 19:21   #160
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Not ODIs, but interesting data with the Champions Trophy coming up in England:

Leic unsurprisingly couldn't defend 211 v Durham
Surrey are about to chase down 244 v Middlesex's Lions attack
Warwickshire should chase down 304 against Notts (but they are really crap so this could yet go wrong)
Northants are about to chase down 325 against Jimmy Anderson's Lancs
Sussex are about to chase down 332 against K*nt

Somerset defended 338 v Glamorgan
Worcestershire defended 342 v Yorks
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