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Old 14th February 2015, 11:02   #1
Ali TT
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The World Cup and Beyond: ODI Par Score Thread

Australia
MCG Australia 342/9 off 50 overs-Australia win
India 307/7 won
Sri Lanka 332/1 won
India 302/6 won (QF)
Adelaide Oval India 300/7 off 50 overs India win
Bangladesh 275/6 won
Ireland 237ao lost
Pakistan 213ao lost (QF)
Canberra Bangladesh 267ao won
West Indies 372/2 won
South Africa 412/4 won
Gabba UAE 278/9 lost
Pakistan 235/7 won
Sydney SA 408/5 won by ****ing miles
Australia 376/9 won
Sri Lanka 133ao lost (QF)
Afghanistan 111/7 (36.2 overs) lost (D/L)
Perth UAE 102ao lost
Australia 417/6 won
West Indies 182ao lost
Hobart Ireland 331/8 won
Sri Lanka 363/9 won
Scotland 130ao lost

New Zealand
Christchurch
New Zealand 331/6 off 50 overs-NZ win
West Indies 310/6 won
England 303/8 won
Hamilton SA 339/4 off 50 overs SA win
Ireland 259ao lost
Bangladesh 288/7 lost
Nelson WI 304/7 off 50 overs WI lose
UAE 285/7 lost
Scotland 318/8 lost
Dunedin Scotland 142ao, lost
Afghanistan 232ao lost
Scotland 210ao lost
Wellington England 123ao, lost
England 309/6 lost
South Africa 341/6 won
New Zealand 393/6 won (QF)
Auckland Australia 151ao, lost but only just
Pakistan 222ao won (D/L 47 overs)
Zimbabwe 287ao lost
Napier Pakistan 339/6 won
Afghanistan 186ao lost
UAE 175ao lost
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Last edited by Ali TT : 21st March 2015 at 10:17.
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Old 14th February 2015, 11:11   #2
Sir Virgs and Zamora
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Do you understand the concept of par? This should be the World Cup batting first thread.

Both these scores are miles above par which is why they both won easily.

A par score is when you win half and lose half.
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Old 14th February 2015, 11:26   #3
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Do you understand the concept of "tongue in cheek"?
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Old 14th February 2015, 21:10   #4
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Do you understand the concept of "tongue in cheek"?
You didn't have to have the rod out long there, did you?
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Old 14th February 2015, 23:17   #5
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He was not fishing. He was repeating the crap uttered by the comms. Woakes has an economy rate of almost 6 and they say "that is much too high as you won't win matches" they are right of course but Do they understand how economy rates relate to runs scored?

They say par is over 300 then slate someone with an economy rate which would lead to below this. Bizarre.
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Old 15th February 2015, 00:17   #6
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This thread needs D/L for some clarity.
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Old 15th February 2015, 00:36   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir Virgs and Zamora View Post
He was not fishing. He was repeating the crap uttered by the comms. Woakes has an economy rate of almost 6 and they say "that is much too high as you won't win matches" they are right of course but Do they understand how economy rates relate to runs scored?

They say par is over 300 then slate someone with an economy rate which would lead to below this. Bizarre.
Not so bizarre when you think of the IQ of some commentators. You'd think that after a lifetime in cricket they would have a grasp of numbers and arithmetic but the likes of Agnew, Marks and others are always admitting (sounds more like boasting) that they are hopeless and haven't a clue how many more runs are needed to reach the target - yes basic things like that. They should be embarrassed but they display ignorance like a badge of honour.

However, they are full of bul*s*it knowledge and insight about things like par scores and economy rates and the importance of making a century in ODIs. (We've recently lost 2 matches in which centuries were made and if Taylor had got there today we'd still have lost this one).
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Old 15th February 2015, 09:30   #8
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Updated for today's games. I have no issue with calling ccommentators stupid. Even the smart ones don't get it.
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Old 15th February 2015, 11:09   #9
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Just to try and push the argument on a bit - if averaging the first innings scores isn't a good way to judge the 'par' score, I'd assume that averaging both innings scores would be equally flawed. So how could you go about judging a par score? Or is the concept pretty pointless altogether?
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Old 15th February 2015, 11:20   #10
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With four sides batting 1st already posting 300+ this seems as good a place as any to look at the World Cup with regards scores of 300+ .....

300+ Totals

Total ODIs : 361
ODIs with 300+ scores : 60
300+ scores : 65

1975 (60 overs) : 4
1979 (60 overs) :0
1983 (60 overs) : 4
1987 (50 overs) : 1
1992 (50 overs) : 2
1996 (50 overs) : 5
1999 (50 overs) : 3
2003 (50 overs) : 9
2007 (50 overs) : 16
2011 (50 overs) : 17
2015 (50 overs) : 4*

*361 World Cup games, includes the India/Pakistan game in progress at this time but Pakistan may add a 300

Last World Cup there were three instances of both sides scoring 300+, the other two instances were in 1992 and 2007. There has been one tie of scores 300+ , otherwise only four of the 65 sides to score 300+ have lost to date.

The trend, the main point of this exercise, shows an increase in scores of 300+ in the last two World Cups looking set to continue in 2015. The 33 scores of 300+ in 2003 and 2007 combined are more than those scored in the previous 8 World Cups (28)

England do boast SIX World Cup scores of 300+, but three of those when it was a 60 over competition. In their last three scores of 300+ they've tied with India and lost to Ireland.

300+ scores in World Cups (off 60 overs in brackets)

15 Australia (2)
8 South Africa
7 India, New Zealand (1), Sri Lanka
6 England (3)
4 Pakistan (2), Zimbabwe
3 West Indies
2 Holland, Ireland

Fairly safe guess Pakistan at 120/5 won't be adding one this current match. Bangladesh are the only Test nation not to have posted a 300+ total in a World Cup match

Bangladesh have scored 300+ in ODIs, six times in fact. Those not against Zimbabwe (2), UAE or Kenya were 326/3 vs Pakistan in 2014 which they still lost, and 309/6 vs New Zealand in 2013 which they won.
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Old 15th February 2015, 11:38   #11
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Par score is a meaningless concept as it depends on the relative attacks and batting prowess of the two sides - it's the score which gives the particular team on the day a >50% chance of winning the match. Given identical conditions, a team with McGrath and Warne will have a lower par score than one without; and I'd argue for the same conditions, the par score facing England will be lower than the par score facing New Zealand.
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Old 15th February 2015, 12:25   #12
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Whatever happened to the WASP? This was Sky's brilliant calculation system - "Winning and Score Predictor" - that enabled the commentators to assess which team was more likely to win. It was a complex process probably beyond the comprehension of your average viewer, whereby Nick Knight and someone else, perhaps Paul Allott, armed with the backs of several envelopes, would sit down over a coffee and make the calculation for the game in hand. The official WASP-predicted first innings score would appear on the screen. As runs accrued and wickets fell, it would be adjusted accordingly.

Sheer genius. We want it back.
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Old 15th February 2015, 14:10   #13
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A par score is the score at which you will win half and lose half. Obviously different batting and bowling has an impact but overall the score when you win half and lose half is par.

In this World Cup so far all teams have scored 300 plus and won EASILY. The fact that none of the games were remotely competitive shows how above par the scores were.
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Old 15th February 2015, 14:13   #14
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Originally Posted by Sir Virgs and Zamora View Post
A par score is the score at which you will win half and lose half. Obviously different batting and bowling has an impact but overall the score when you win half and lose half is par.

In this World Cup so far all teams have scored 300 plus and won EASILY. The fact that none of the games were remotely competitive shows how above par the scores were.
So 300 is too high. How high though? Would you just guess at 280 being par, or is there some way to work it out?
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Old 15th February 2015, 14:39   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir Virgs and Zamora View Post
A par score is the score at which you will win half and lose half. Obviously different batting and bowling has an impact but overall the score when you win half and lose half is par.

In this World Cup so far all teams have scored 300 plus and won EASILY. The fact that none of the games were remotely competitive shows how above par the scores were.
It is worth noting though that the 4 favoured teams have all batted first. Would have been interesting if it was Australia, South Africa or India chasing 300 rather than defending it. England were never gonna chase it down and it was highly unlikely that Zimbabwe would either.
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Old 15th February 2015, 14:44   #16
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... (We've recently lost 2 matches in which centuries were made and if Taylor had got there today we'd still have lost this one).
Not sure about that. If Taylor had got there today, he would then have started going berserk. We wuz robbed I tell you.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir Virgs and Zamora View Post
A par score is the score at which you will win half and lose half. Obviously different batting and bowling has an impact but overall the score when you win half and lose half is par.

In this World Cup so far all teams have scored 300 plus and won EASILY. The fact that none of the games were remotely competitive shows how above par the scores were.
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So 300 is too high. How high though? Would you just guess at 280 being par, or is there some way to work it out?
Perhaps 300 is not too high, but the average of the first-innings scores so far is. But I would imagine that you don't need to score very many above par when batting first in order to win by quite a margin -- because the oppo are going to need to push hard and are fairly likely to fall on their faces.
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Old 15th February 2015, 22:04   #17
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But I would imagine that you don't need to score very many above par when batting first in order to win by quite a margin -- because the oppo are going to need to push hard and are fairly likely to fall on their faces.


It's not a linear relationship.
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Old 15th February 2015, 22:37   #18
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There's been a lot of speculation about what par actually is. Given the actual title of the thread and the currently very small sample size, I think we are a little early to be deciding what par is.
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Old 15th February 2015, 23:43   #19
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I do nae have the answers but I do know that determining ''par'' has become so much more difficult in recent years. Furthermore, I'm sure the difficulty will only continue to get bigger.

The more wickets in hand approaching the final overs have always boosted the batting side's chances of a higher score. Even someone from Tipperary could tell you that. However, the number of runs that might now conceivably be scored off the final dozen overs with, say, 7 wickets left is almost beyond our comprehension as it was a decade ago and only looks set to grow further. I feel this must have a major bearing in calculating par. I can see 50 Shades of Duckworth Lewis needing to be applied as there are so many potential variables.

Whatever the calculation of par, the best way for England to ensure that their opponents don't reach it is to dismiss them within 50 overs. That's why I've been banging on elsewhere on this forum about England playing the extra bowler even though some others regard the elegance of a 30 from Bell as the be all and end all.
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Old 16th February 2015, 00:09   #20
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A par score is when you win half and lose half.
A par score is simply the expected number of runs in the innings. Or, to put it another way, if the innings was played 10,000 times, what would the average score be?

If we assume every team is of equal ability in batting, bowling and fielding then, yes, the par score will be that which gives a 50% of victory. But in reality this is not really a helpful assumption. If Australia scored 250 batting first at the MCG against Scotland that would be significantly below par. But they would still be significant favourite to win the match.
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