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Old 20th February 2015, 10:44   #41
Breacan
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England impressively have conceded most runs while bowling first and also scored fewest runs when batting first. Well done, clowns!
However, you could argue that given our current team, the Australian score was below par for the conditions, and the Kiwi bowlers will be disappointed in the number of runs they leaked.
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Old 20th February 2015, 12:06   #42
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England impressively have conceded most runs while bowling first and also scored fewest runs when batting first. Well done, clowns!
We're the most ballanced team.
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Old 20th February 2015, 23:23   #43
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Sorry, late back to this. I think my only initial point was that the 50% win probability yardstick is irrelevant to what a par score is - unless we assume all teams are identical - which is obviously a silly assumption.

But the concept of a par score still has value, even if it is highly subjective, because it allows us to gauge performance. As you suggest, there are almost certainly just too many variables and too little relevant data to be able to model what a par score with any degree of accuracy. A 'wisdom of crowds' approach is probably the best way to determine a par score, and we have that in the form of exchange betting markets. I highly doubt teams/commentators ever use data from betting exchanges in their analysis, but really they should.
I'm not totally sure how wise the betting exchanges are but probably not bad. I'd be interested in an analysis of how close the exchanges get. My betting on cricket isn't especially scientific but it does win me money overall, I think (ought to get round to checking at some point). If I'm better than the exchanges the best thing to might just be to ask me.
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Old 21st February 2015, 06:59   #44
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After a series of matches with the minnows batting first, order is restored with one of the big seven sides, West Indies, scoring 310 in their win last night.
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Old 21st February 2015, 07:56   #45
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Interesting that the West Indies have managed to post 300+ twice despite little or no contribution from Chris Gayle.
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Old 21st February 2015, 10:29   #46
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Interesting that the West Indies have managed to post 300+ twice despite little or no contribution from Chris Gayle.
It's that number 8 spot.
He only averages 265.58
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Old 21st February 2015, 16:40   #47
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I'm not totally sure how wise the betting exchanges are but probably not bad. I'd be interested in an analysis of how close the exchanges get. My betting on cricket isn't especially scientific but it does win me money overall, I think (ought to get round to checking at some point). If I'm better than the exchanges the best thing to might just be to ask me.
Sounds like it's time for you to quit your day job and up your stakes

Seriously though, even if you are a very shrewd judge, you still have the ability to choose the moments you bet. On occasions when you agree with the exchange, or more pertinently when you just don't know, you are not required to bet. The exchange market only has to be wrong 1% of the time for you to make money, if you are good enough to spot when those 1% of occasions are. But it would still be a very good indicator overall.

I agree it's far from a perfect gauge, but it's the first place I'd go for an indicator on what a par score is.
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Old 22nd February 2015, 22:56   #48
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Athers just described 300 as the "baseline, bottom score" teams would expect to score.
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Old 23rd February 2015, 00:19   #49
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Sounds like it's time for you to quit your day job and up your stakes

Seriously though, even if you are a very shrewd judge, you still have the ability to choose the moments you bet. On occasions when you agree with the exchange, or more pertinently when you just don't know, you are not required to bet. The exchange market only has to be wrong 1% of the time for you to make money, if you are good enough to spot when those 1% of occasions are. But it would still be a very good indicator overall.

I agree it's far from a perfect gauge, but it's the first place I'd go for an indicator on what a par score is.
Spot on and agree with all you say. Knowing how right you are is surprisingly tough in most scenarios and you absolutely have to doubt yourself, because your analysis won't be right all the time. On my main money making scheme, which I'm not elucidating in detail because there's only room for so many sharks in the pool, I'm very sure I'm better than the market, which I think is thoroughly bent for reasons I'm also not going into but are to do with flaws in human psychology and judgement. Even then I'm sure there have been occasions when my general edge hasn't applied but I've not been sharp enough or analysed the market hard enough to know.

It's a bit of a trap to think you have to have a bet on a game. I've had enough discipline to do next to no betting and that at very low stakes for games I don't understand particularly deeply like tennis and snooker (I won a bit backing the kid who beat Nadal at Wimbledon) although I shamefully had a losing bet on Pop Idol or whatever the hideous Simon Cowell thing is called. I am prone to having a bet on cricket without waiting for very long but I do at least have the sense to keep the stakes low when I'm being speculative.

Oh and my stakes are gradually increasing as my Betfair bankroll ratchets up. I repatriate the odd ton here and there to keep my wife relatively speaking happy about it. I quite like my day job though and I'm nowhere near making enough to do more than put a very small dent in outgoing.
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Old 23rd February 2015, 00:40   #50
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I found it relatively easy to win small amounts but it's difficult to scale it up.
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Old 23rd February 2015, 00:45   #51
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I found it relatively easy to win small amounts but it's difficult to scale it up.
Taken me about 18 months to get to the point where a winning bet will often be triple figures. I suspect I was pretty lucky not to bust out early on when I had far less idea what I was doing. I repatriated my seed money quite early on which slowed the process down but made things less alarming.

I had a bet in Pietersen as top run scorer in an ODI innings I recall, not long after I opened the account and Jos Buttler got past him late on when I'd already counted my winnings.
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Old 26th February 2015, 11:04   #52
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Updated for recent games. Only one successful defence of a score below 300 so far, Bangladesh v Afghanistan
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Old 27th February 2015, 19:46   #53
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Athers just described 300 as the "baseline, bottom score" teams would expect to score.
As England v New Zealand is the only case so far this tournament of a top 8 team failing to reach 300 batting first, I can't say he's wrong there. And even the UAE managed to reach around 280 in their two matches so far.

Dunedin is the only ground so far that is not 300 par, Afghanistan - Sri Lanka and Scotland - Afghanistan being close matches with low first innings scores.
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Old 27th February 2015, 20:00   #54
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As England v New Zealand is the only case so far this tournament of a top 8 team failing to reach 300 batting first, I can't say he's wrong there. And even the UAE managed to reach around 280 in their two matches so far.

Dunedin is the only ground so far that is not 300 par, Afghanistan - Sri Lanka and Scotland - Afghanistan being close matches with low first innings scores.
Yet, teams were unsuccessful in their chases of 300+, which suggests above 300 is slightly better than par. I would suggest that 290-300 is par and 320 much better than par.
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Old 27th February 2015, 20:07   #55
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A few grounds hosting their first games this tournament may see some changes in first innings scores.
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Old 27th February 2015, 20:07   #56
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Yet, teams were unsuccessful in their chases of 300+, which suggests above 300 is slightly better than par. I would suggest that 290-300 is par and 320 much better than par.
It is worth noting that none of Australia, New Zealand or India have yet had to chase a score in excess of 300 though. The stats may change a little if/when they do.

Also, we've had a proliferation of matches where the favourite has batted first and posted a big score such as SA v Zim, England v Scotland, Australia v England, SA v WI, India v Pakistan. There hasnt been any matches where the opposite is the case, i.e the favoured team having to chase in excess of 300.
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Old 28th February 2015, 01:10   #57
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There hasnt been any matches where the opposite is the case, i.e the favoured team having to chase in excess of 300.
Ahem. Ireland had to chase against the Windies...

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Old 28th February 2015, 01:49   #58
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Ahem. Ireland had to chase against the Windies...

I wouldn't say Ireland was the favoured team against the West Indies. On the other hand, South Africa were the favoured team against India, and they failed rather miserably chasing 300.
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Old 28th February 2015, 02:08   #59
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I wouldn't say Ireland was the favoured team against the West Indies.
Oh, I would. England best the Windies fairly comprensively in the warm-ups...
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Old 28th February 2015, 03:43   #60
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Scotland scored 310 and lost to Windies by only 3 runs, I guess, in one of the warm-up games, but they have not been able to carry that batting performance into the tournament.
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