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Old 26th September 2017, 17:37   #1
geoff_boycotts_grandmother
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Strike rate and international success?

Alastair Cook has scored his championship runs at a s/r of 58.05 this season.
In test cricket he's scored his runs at a s/r of 47.39 this season (46.95 career).

Kumar Sangakkara has scored his championship runs at a s/r of 68.77 this season. In test cricket he's scored his runs at a s/r of 54.19 over his career.

Shiv Chanderpaul has scored his championship runs at a s/r of 56.48 this season. In test cricket he's scored his runs at a s/r of 43.31 over his career.

The drop-off in strike-rate between international and county cricket shouldn't be surprising - international bowlers no doubt bowl fewer loose deliveries, there's usually less time to adjust as bowlers are generally quicker and the level of fielding is way lower in county cricket - but what is surprising is that despite not being known as sloggers or fast scorers these three are amongst the dozen quickest scoring batsmen in the County Championship 1st division.

Scoring rates in div 1 amongst specialist batsmen & keepers (min 500 runs)

Sangakkara 68.77
Hildreth 66.99
Stoneman 65.22
Vilas 61.63
ten Doeschate 61.11
Bailey 59.94
Vince 58.90
Cook 58.05
Livingstone 57.34
Robson 57.34
Eskinazi 57.09
Chanderpaul 56.48
Malan 55.89 - 493 runs only
Bell 55.86
Davies (Lancs) 54.92
Davies (Somerset) 54.28
Foakes 52.46
Ballance 52.09
Trescothick 51.40
Trott 50.72
Elgar 50.19
Abell 49.95
Burns 48.65
Simpson 48.35
Westley 48.36
Lyth 47.71
Lees 46.20
Ambrose 45.31
Adams 45.06
Browne 44.39
Lawrence 44.07
Bopara 42.29
Sibley 42.22

The most successful of the new batsmen England have tried this year - Stoneman and Malan - are amongst the quicker scorers. Not one of the batsmen with a s/r under 50 has had a successful international career. Elgar scores just above it and is a marginal test batsman (although would clearly open for England if he was eligible) with a test average under 40. Trescothick and Trott are both shadows of the batsmen they use to be, still have a s/r of just over 50.

Might scoring rate be a useful indicator about whether a player has the class for that step up to international cricket? Obviously this is a very small sample size so far, but if a batsman can expect to score 10+ runs per 100 balls less in test cricket than county cricket that would indicate that a batsman with a s/r in county cricket around 45 might only be scoring at a rate of 35 in test cricket. There will be times that a s/r of 35 in test cricket is desirable but without the ability to also accelerate when the conditions are easier means that batsman is likely to be able to bat long enough to consistently score big runs. Of course it could just be that if a batsman is only good enough to survive 50 balls in international cricket, it's better if he can score 35 runs off of them than 15.

Might scoring rate be a useful selection statistic and if so how?
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Old 26th September 2017, 21:34   #2
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But then Hameed's s/r are pretty identical at 34/36 so maybe it just bottoms out below a certain point (maybe because everyone has just dozed off, including the scorer).

Not sure Elgar is a marginal test player. Most sides at any point in cricketing history would be happy to have him at the top of the innings.
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Old 26th September 2017, 21:52   #3
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Given that Ian 'Binary' Bell is in that list, I'm not sure that tells us very much. He averages in the low 20s this season yet has a s/r in the upper echelons.
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Old 26th September 2017, 22:19   #4
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One potential explanation could of course be that these players are the best at punishing bad balls and possibly also rotating the strike (as well as the occasional just excellent shot) of the county batsman. Given that that's how the bulk of test runs will come, albeit at a slower pace due to the improved bowling, then one could possibly try and assemble a hypothesis as to there being some link.
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Old 26th September 2017, 22:51   #5
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Quote:
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But then Hameed's s/r are pretty identical at 34/36 so maybe it just bottoms out below a certain point (maybe because everyone has just dozed off, including the scorer).

Not sure Elgar is a marginal test player. Most sides at any point in cricketing history would be happy to have him at the top of the innings.
Hameed's test career is probably too small a sample size but I reckon his scoring rate will increase with experience anyway.

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Given that Ian 'Binary' Bell is in that list, I'm not sure that tells us very much. He averages in the low 20s this season yet has a s/r in the upper echelons.
More midtable mediocrity than upper echelons, but I'm not sure a high strike-rate is a guarantee of success rather a low strike-rate is a sign that a player may struggle against better bowlers.
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Old 26th September 2017, 23:55   #6
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Interesting theory GBG. Pretty surprised to see Stoneman third on that list.
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Old 27th September 2017, 13:22   #7
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A contributory factor might be that as an innings is built batsmen naturally score quicker - in Test cricket the bowling is better so they are more likely to be out earlier before they have the opportunity to accelerate after playing themselves in?
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Old 27th September 2017, 13:36   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bestie View Post
One potential explanation could of course be that these players are the best at punishing bad balls and possibly also rotating the strike (as well as the occasional just excellent shot) of the county batsman. Given that that's how the bulk of test runs will come, albeit at a slower pace due to the improved bowling, then one could possibly try and assemble a hypothesis as to there being some link.
The rotating the strike bit intrigues me. I think this is an underrated attribute in test cricket. The best players are able to manipulate the strike. Not sure how we can best measure this (at least from the stats we have readily available).

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Interesting theory GBG. Pretty surprised to see Stoneman third on that list.
Stoneman's s/r appears to have been quite consistent.

Last season was 64.57 when he averaged 45.70.

2015 it was 67.49 when he averaged 34.06
2014 it was 63.54 when he averaged 35.85
2013 it was 69.77 when he averaged 34.86

If he solves England's opener woes then that would certainly suggest we need to pay closer attention to strike-rate.

FWIW with the contentious England selections

Vince

2017 it is 58.95 when he averages 33.11
2016 it was 54.87 when he averaged 33.78
2015 it was 60.65 when he averaged 28.57
2014 it was 76.86 when he averaged 61.00 DIVISION TWO ALERT
2013 it was 64.16 when he averaged 61.16 DIVISION TWO ALERT

Ballance

2017 it is 52.09 when he averages 72.76
2016 it was 49.08 when he averaged 33.91
2015 it was 49.72 when he averaged 35.23
2014 it was 59.87 when he averaged 65.00
2013 it was 54.67 when he averaged 62.55

I would generally
(1) expect s/r to increase when a player averages more
(2) expect a player to score quicker in division 2 than division 1
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Old 27th September 2017, 15:18   #9
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Quote:
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Given that Ian 'Binary' Bell is in that list, I'm not sure that tells us very much. He averages in the low 20s this season yet has a s/r in the upper echelons.
Maybe there's a connection between the higher strike rate and the lower (much lower) scores. He's had a dreadful season.
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Old 27th September 2017, 15:21   #10
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Maybe there's a connection between the higher strike rate and the lower (much lower) scores. He's had a dreadful season.
73* in a low scoring game a few moments ago. A mention in the Player watch thread!
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Old 27th September 2017, 15:39   #11
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Quote:
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Maybe there's a connection between the higher strike rate and the lower (much lower) scores. He's had a dreadful season.
Interesting.

More edges through vacant third man?
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Old 27th September 2017, 16:34   #12
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73* in a low scoring game a few moments ago. A mention in the Player watch thread!
Too late to save Warwickshire but no harm in trying to re-establish his credentials with his BBL boss Justin Langer.
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Old 27th September 2017, 16:58   #13
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Too late to save Warwickshire but no harm in trying to re-establish his credentials with his BBL boss Justin Langer.
Retire from fc cricket and concentrate on T20?

Anyway, interesting to see this analysis to include expected strike-rate.

http://www.sportsanalyticsadvantage....-for-the-ashes

They reckon Sam Northeast, who I wanted to take to India last year but haven't included here as he's division 2, should go to Australia, along with Burns and Livingstone.

I wouldn't have been adverse to those selections.
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Old 28th September 2017, 00:56   #14
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So should they have picked Bell or Hildreth instead of Ballance for the tour party?
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