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Old 12th March 2018, 19:58   #261
AJ101
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Originally Posted by sanskritsimon View Post
I think the last time we dropped a spinner for an ODI was our first game of the Champions Trophy last summer, when we dropped Rashid for a fifth seamer.

General point was that seamers are less likely to bowl out than spinners. It's not unusual for the spinners to bowl 20 and the seamers to share the rest, but it is unusual for the seamers to bowl 40 and the spinners to share the rest. The last time I remember the latter happening (or near enough; hard to say, as the oppo only batted 45 overs) was in our second CT match, when Ali bowled 0 and Rashid 10. A bit of overcorrection there by Morgan perhaps.

Hard to say whether the variations are due to the pitch or who's bowling well / getting hit and who isn't. Maybe Morgan likes to have options in particular towards the death, which might make seamers less likely to bowl out. In any case, it seems to me that overall the 6-bowlers policy lessens the workload of the seamers more than it lessens the workload of the spinners.

I would tend to agree with you about not needing 6 bowlers, but I think if we picked just 5 and an extra batsman then we could probably ditch Root too, as basically he's the insurance against getting bowled out, which would be less likely to happen if Woakes and Rashid were at 9 and 10 rather than at 8 and 9. So I think if we played 5 bowlers plus Root, then on good days we might end up putting Root down the order or at DNB. In any case, Morgan and the selectors seem set to carry on with 6 bowlers, and with several fine all-rounders it's certainly a viable policy.
If you meant our spinners not bowling more than 10 overs between them then yes that's unusual and would tend to be when it's a seamer friendly pitch and we bowl the oppo out and yes it lessens the workload of the seamers more than the spinners but bowling 10 overs isn't exactly a heavy workload for a spinner in any case

Not sure about it meaning we'd be more likely to drop Root, I hope it would mean we'd plan an extra opener and go for it more in the first powerplay when we lose an early wicket.

You're right that it's a viable policy with so many all rounders and overall our general attitude since the world cup has been a breath of fresh air but I get the feeling that the England setup isn't looking to improve from the standpoint of their team balance and think they've got it spot on (which I don't think they do). Root going back to 3 rather than 4 isn't a major issue in the grand scheme of things but it's something that shouldn't have happened and weakens our team.
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Old 12th March 2018, 19:59   #262
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Well for those who questioned the influence of the toss. NZ won it 3 times and we had 3 close games. England won it twice and we witnessed two demolitions. It was certainly easier bowling first. A June World Cup in England ought not to have much influence either way.
I saw some stats the other day that suggested that batting second (admittedly this was in T20, but I expect a similar pattern will be there in the longer limited overs version) gave a 55% chance of winning, as opposed to 45% from batting first. It's obviously not the be all and end all, but that's a fairly sizeable advantage.

That's a pacing thing rather than a dew/moisture making batting harder thing.
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Old 12th March 2018, 20:06   #263
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I saw some stats the other day that suggested that batting second (admittedly this was in T20, but I expect a similar pattern will be there in the longer limited overs version) gave a 55% chance of winning, as opposed to 45% from batting first. It's obviously not the be all and end all, but that's a fairly sizeable advantage.

That's a pacing thing rather than a dew/moisture making batting harder thing.
I guess conditions are more likely to be relatively consistent across 40 overs, but might change more markedly over 100, particularly a day night in some parts of the world.
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Old 12th March 2018, 22:39   #264
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I saw some stats the other day that suggested that batting second (admittedly this was in T20, but I expect a similar pattern will be there in the longer limited overs version) gave a 55% chance of winning, as opposed to 45% from batting first. It's obviously not the be all and end all, but that's a fairly sizeable advantage.

That's a pacing thing rather than a dew/moisture making batting harder thing.
I'm unsure how best to interpret stats of that kind.

A few years ago Ed Smith and probably others were busy telling us that test matches were more often won by the team batting second than by the team batting first, and that therefore captains should put the oppo in to bat a bit more. Perhaps the next thing that happened was that Cook put NZ in to bat and it didn't go well. The other day Root called it the aggressive option, which was something to say, I suppose.

I don't know the stats on this but I suspect that captains haven't really changed their ways in light of this revelation. Given that there are already a number of factors that influence what one does when winning the toss (the weather, the weather forecast, the look of the pitch, the makeup of the two teams, the absence of a decent spinner in the England team, etc.), it is hard to know how to integrate a new factor that is of a very different kind -- i.e., a statistical average that includes all kinds of games in which one was not involved.

An ODI or 2020 is a different kind of game, but still there's the same question of how one balances that statistical factor against the other more obvious factors.

In the end I suspect that you've begged the question rather in the way that you've phrased things in your post. Does the fact that in 55% of known games the side batting second has won necessarily mean that the captain who wins the toss and says "you bat, we'll bowl" already has a sizeable advantage? I suspect that the answer to this question is extremely complicated.
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Old 13th March 2018, 01:11   #265
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Originally Posted by Sir Coolerking View Post
Well for those who questioned the influence of the toss. NZ won it 3 times and we had 3 close games. England won it twice and we witnessed two demolitions. It was certainly easier bowling first. A June World Cup in England ought not to have much influence either way.
What one dimensional thought processes you have. The toss had nothing to do with the Dunedin result, England threw that away. Red herring. The fact that half of NZ's batting was absent in the two demolitions was a key reason for the size of the gap, but hey, let's ignore those other points to bang some kind of drum that England were hard done by having to field in the dew in the first game. Blimey o'reilly.
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Old 13th March 2018, 11:56   #266
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What one dimensional thought processes you have. The toss had nothing to do with the Dunedin result, England threw that away. Red herring. The fact that half of NZ's batting was absent in the two demolitions was a key reason for the size of the gap, but hey, let's ignore those other points to bang some kind of drum that England were hard done by having to field in the dew in the first game. Blimey o'reilly.
So you really think that the two games NZ won would've been the same result had the toss gone the other way? Yes, England imploded when looking like scoring 380, but that wouldn't have happened had they known what they were chasing (which would probably have been about 240 judged by NZ's efforts at batting first!!).
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Old 13th March 2018, 14:44   #267
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Ben Stokes will miss England's opening Test warm-up game with a minor back injury.

Chris Woakes & Craig Overton will also sit out with niggles.
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Old 13th March 2018, 15:45   #268
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Reminder: this is a three-day match and the only match remaining before the first test.

Test squad: Ali, Anderson, Bairstow, Broad, Cook, Crane, Foakes, Livingstone, Malan, Overton, Root, Stokes, Stoneman, Vince, Woakes, Wood.
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Old 13th March 2018, 15:49   #269
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Assuming all are fit for the First Test, surely the only selection decision will be Vince or Livingstone and whether Malan moves up to 3.

Cook, Stoneman, Vince/Livingstone, Root, Malan, Stokes, Bairstow, Ali, Woakes, Broad, Anderson
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Old 13th March 2018, 15:55   #270
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Assuming all are fit for the First Test, surely the only selection decision will be Vince or Livingstone and whether Malan moves up to 3.
Depending on how Wood performs over the next few days, there may also perhaps be some debate about who plays as third seamer. Woakes has been largely disappointing in that role in away tests, and with Stokes back in the team and Bairstow and Ali moving down a place, Woakes's batting may not carry so much weight. Nonetheless I expect you are right, since with Stokes back in the team as fourth seamer it won't matter too much if the third seamer doesn't really merit his place on bowling alone.
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Old 13th March 2018, 16:29   #271
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Depending on how Wood performs over the next few days, there may also perhaps be some debate about who plays as third seamer. Woakes has been largely disappointing in that role in away tests, and with Stokes back in the team and Bairstow and Ali moving down a place, Woakes's batting may not carry so much weight. Nonetheless I expect you are right, since with Stokes back in the team as fourth seamer it won't matter too much if the third seamer doesn't really merit his place on bowling alone.
I hear where you're coming from and a fit Wood certainly adds something a bit different to the attack. But Woakes has impressed in the ODI series and if you're ever going to find away surfaces similar to English conditions then they'll be in NZ.

Plus, what chance of Wood actually being fit anyway?
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Old 13th March 2018, 16:41   #272
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... Plus, what chance of Wood actually being fit anyway?
Indeed! When KYS said "Chris Woakes & Craig Overton will also sit out with niggles", I though she'd missed out a capital letter and that Niggles was a new nickname for Wood ...
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Old 13th March 2018, 16:49   #273
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Wood is struggling to crank up the pace in ODIs and his injury ridden last 2 and a half years has clearly resulted in him losing pace.

Shame, as he really did bring extra to the team in the 1st and 4th test of the 2015 Ashes and he will always have in his memory bank taking the final wicket in the latter mentioned test to ensure that the series was won.
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Old 13th March 2018, 18:18   #274
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Reminder: this is a three-day match and the only match remaining before the first test.
It's not; this is the first of two 2 day "matches".
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Old 13th March 2018, 18:24   #275
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Wood is struggling to crank up the pace in ODIs and his injury ridden last 2 and a half years has clearly resulted in him losing pace.

Shame, as he really did bring extra to the team in the 1st and 4th test of the 2015 Ashes and he will always have in his memory bank taking the final wicket in the latter mentioned test to ensure that the series was won.
I watched a bit of the final ODI and although he bowled with admirable accuracy (and a touch of away movement) he was struggling to get it through over 135kph (84mph) on a consistent basis. I think he is another who is destined to pursue a white ball only career but, even then, I think he is going to struggle with the demands of international cricket.

FWIW I think there are 2 members of the test squad who are currently unselectable (Crane and Wood) and a third who is is a proven failure and very ill suited to the role he is being asked to perform (Vince). I'd be in favour of Livingstone making his debut at 5 if it wasn't for his own struggles on the Lions tour.
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Old 13th March 2018, 20:09   #276
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Assuming all are fit for the First Test, surely the only selection decision will be Vince or Livingstone and whether Malan moves up to 3.

Cook, Stoneman, Vince/Livingstone, Root, Malan, Stokes, Bairstow, Ali, Woakes, Broad, Anderson
Maybe swap Vince and Woakes in the batting order?
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Old 13th March 2018, 20:35   #277
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Originally Posted by Sir Coolerking View Post
So you really think that the two games NZ won would've been the same result had the toss gone the other way? Yes, England imploded when looking like scoring 380, but that wouldn't have happened had they known what they were chasing (which would probably have been about 240 judged by NZ's efforts at batting first!!).
Your argument is fallacious. You have no idea whether England would have responded to NZ's score without collapsing. Maybe NZ would have scored the 400 England failed to. Skills and ability are more important than the toss, otherwise why do we bother?
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Old 13th March 2018, 23:33   #278
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It's not; this is the first of two 2 day "matches".
Thanks for the update, Psy. I was just following the thread's opening post. Not sure which is worse, two two-day matches or one three-day one. Anyway who needs decent prep, they're only test matches.
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Old 13th March 2018, 23:34   #279
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Maybe swap Vince and Woakes in the batting order?
Don't you think Root should be opening any more?
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Old 14th March 2018, 00:29   #280
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Don't you think Root should be opening any more?
Yes.
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